Generic ballot suggests that the contest for control of Congress remains close
Introduction
The McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s latest Mood of the Nation Poll, conducted with 1,000 U.S. adults by YouGov from May 19 to 26, 2026, included questions aimed at better understanding what the American public thinks about the job performance of the President, the Congress and the Supreme Court, as well as voter preferences in the upcoming congressional elections.
The President is more polarizing that either the Supreme Court or Congress
Just over half of Americans approve of the Supreme Court’s job performance, rating them either “great” or “very good.” In comparison, fewer than 4 in 10 approve of President Trump’s job performance and just under 3 in 10 approve of the job done by Congress.
President Trump inspires higher ratings at the extreme ends of the four-point rating scale:
- Twenty percent rate Trump as “great,” compared to only 10% for the Supreme Court and 5% for Congress.
- Half of all Americans rate Trump’s job performance as “poor” compared to 36% for Congress and 27% for the Supreme Court.
President Trump underwater among most groups of Americans
Only 37% of Americans say that Donald Trump is doing a great or pretty good job, while 63% rate his performance is not very good or poor. When more Americans disapprove than approve, pollsters refer to the president as “under water.” President Trump is under water across nearly all demographics: men and women, all age groups, all racial and ethnic groups, all education and income groups.
Self-identified Republicans, including independents who lean Republican, and 2024 Trump voters continue to give him high marks, with 83% of each grading is job performance as great or pretty good.
The Supreme Court’s net job performance rating is just barely above water, and the net rating for Congress is even lower than that of the president. Six of the nine current justices were appointed by Republican Presidents. The Court’s net approval rating is strongest among Republicans and those who voted for Trump in 2024.
Net job performance ratings for Congress, despite the slim Republican majorities in both the House and Senate, are underwater among both Republicans and Democrats as well as both Trump and Harris voters.
Generic ballot suggests that the contest for control of U.S. Congress remains close
So far the public’s low approval of the president has not translated into a decisive edge for the Democratic Party in November’s Congressional elections—at least according to the results of our latest “generic ballot” poll question.
If the midterm elections were held today, 41% of registered voters nationwide would vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate, 37% for the Republican, while 22% remain undecided, are leaning towards a third-party candidate or do not anticipate voting at all. These results are nearly identical to the findings of our winter 2026 poll, conducted Feb. 18 to 23.
Election Day remains nearly five months away and the Democratic edge of four percentage points, combined with 15% undecided suggest that control of Congress could go either way.
Democrats maintain a large advantage in the generic ballot among African Americans (+62), voters under 30 (+19), voters with college degrees (+16), and women (+11). Republican candidates have the advantage among Whites (-13), those who never attended college (-11), and Independents (-9%), though the latter two groups tend to have low turnout in midterm elections.
In their own words: Reasons given for vote choice
Respondents were asked to provide their reasons for their vote preferences. Examples of responses given by those planning to vote for Democratic candidates include:
- “Republicans have started pointless wars” – 21-year-old male Hispanic from Georgia who did not vote in 2024.
- “Republicans are making decisions that are disastrous for women.” – 44-year-old female from New Mexico who specified her race and ethnicity as “other” and did not vote in 2024.
- “Because the Republican Party is destroying our country and everything it stood for” – 71-year-old White woman from Michigan who voted for Harris in 2024.
- “The candidate will support clean energy.” – 66-year-old White woman from California who voted for Harris in 2024.
- “Because Democrats believe in the Constitution.” – 87-year-old White woman from Wisconsin who voted for Harris in 2024.
- “The Republicans are controlled by the President.” – 69-year-old Black male from Texas who indicated voting for Trump in 2024.
Examples of responses given by those planning to vote for Republican candidates include:
- “Republicans take the best decisions and implement them.” – 23-year-old Hispanic woman from Texas who did not vote in 2024.
- “Democrats use illegals to commit enormous fraud.” – 41-year-old woman from California who specified her race as “other” and did not vote in 2024.
- “I believe Republican policies can help the economy grow.” – 25-year-old Black man from Florida who voted for Trump in 2024.
- “Trying to get manufacturing back to the US” – 63-year-old White woman from Texas who voted for Trump in 2024.
- “The don’t support abortion.” – 42-year-old White woman from North Carolina who voted for Trump in 2024.
Survey questions used in this report
Penn State’s nonpartisan McCourtney Institute for Democracy regularly conducts the nationally representative Mood of the Nation Poll. For additional information about the Mood of the Nation Poll see democracy.psu.edu/research/mood-of-the-nation-poll/
The spring 2026 poll included the following questions aimed at better understanding the public’s assessment of the job performance of the president, the Supreme Court and the Congress, as well as voter preferences in the upcoming congressional elections.
- We would like to know a little bit about your thoughts about people and institutions in government today. How well do you think each of the following does its main job in government? Great job, Pretty good job, Not a very good job, or Poor job
- Donald Trump
- Supreme Court
- Congress
Note: The order of the three entities was randomized such that one-third were asked about President Trump first, one-third were first asked about the Supreme Court, and on-third were first asked about Congress.
- If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?
- The Democratic Party candidate [Randomize order of 1 and 2]
- The Republican Party candidate
- A third party candidate
- I am not sure
- I would not vote
Note: The order of the first two options was randomized such that half of the sample started with “the Democratic Party candidate” and the other half started with “the Republican Party candidate.” The order of the remaining options was as presented above for all respondents.
About the survey
Read the full poll report
Survey transparency disclosures
Data collection for this Mood of the Nation Poll was conducted online by YouGov. The YouGov panel includes over 1.8 million individuals who agree to complete occasional surveys.
Most Mood of the Nation Polls, are cross-sectional polls of approximately 1,000 U.S. adults, matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).
About the McCourtney Institute for Democracy
The McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State promotes scholarship and practical innovations that defend and advance democracy in the United States and abroad. Through teaching, research and public outreach, the Institute leverages the resources of Penn State and partners around the world to foster a model of deliberation, policymaking and responsiveness that is passionate, informed and civil.
The Mood of the Nation Poll offers a unique approach to public opinion polling. It allows Americans to speak in their own words through open-ended questions that focus on emotions like anger and hope, as well as commitment to constitutional principles.
Contact: democracyinst@psu.edu | democracy.psu.edu
Acknowledgments
This report was authored by Eric Plutzer of Penn State’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy, who also designed the survey questions in his role as Director of the Mood of the Nation Poll, and Craig Helmstetter.