Independents and Democrats are more worried than Republicans

Introduction

The McCourtney Institute for Democracy’s latest Mood of the Nation Poll, conducted with 1,000 U.S. adults by YouGov from February 18 to 23, 2023, included questions aimed at better understanding current worries as well as citizens’ assessments of the likelihood that certain problems will occur.

This poll was completed before the U.S. attack on Iran on February 28th, 2026. Because economic anxiety may have increased during the first three weeks of the war, these poll results should be interpreted to reflect the nation’s concerns in early 2026.

Worries and likelihood of occurrence

One in three Americans worry about falling behind in paying their rent or mortgage. One in three employed adults worry about losing their job in the next 12 months, including 15% who are “very worried” about losing their job.

Nearly 1 in 4 employed Americans say that it is either somewhat or very likely that they will face losing their job sometime in the next 12 months. The same proportion of all adults indicate that they are likely to fall behind on their rent or mortgage payments.

Somewhat fewer Americans, 29%, say they are worried about being a victim of a serious crime, and 16% think they will become a serious crime victim (3% very likely). Fewer still, 1 in 13, worry about being struck by lightning, and 1 in 20 think they will be struck by lightning within the next 12 months.

Are respondents exaggerating risks or are they realistic?

Sometimes, poll results reflect “expressive responding,” where survey respondents exaggerate to make a political point.[1] But we do not see strong evidence of exaggerating the risks from job loss, missing housing payments or crime victimization:

• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics most recent Work Experience Summary, 8.3% of the U.S. workforce was unemployed at some point in 2024.[2] The monthly unemployment rate was up in 2025 (4.3% compared to 4.0% in 2024), so it is likely that the proportion of the workforce that was unemployed in 2025 also increased somewhat.
• The proportion of households that fall behind in their housing payments over the course of a year is elusive. However, the Census Bureau’s October 2024 Household Pulse Survey showed that 7.1% of households reported not currently being caught up on their housing payments, including 4.2% of homeowners and 13.6% of renters.[3] Similarly, the Philadelphia Fed’s Labor, Income, Finances, and Expectations (LIFE) Survey, fielded June 26 to July 11, 2025 found that 4.8% of mortgage borrowers and 18.9% of renters had at least partially missed their housing payments in the previous three months.[4] Finally, according to U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey data, 33% of U.S. households were housing cost-burdened in 2024, defined as spending at least 30% of their income on housing.[5]
• According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2024 National Crime Victimization Survey, about 2% of Americans age 12 or older were victims of violent crimes, and about 10% of households were victims of theft.[6]

On the other hand, Americans may be over-estimating the realistic probability of being struck by lightning. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are less than one in a million.”[7]

Even so, 95% felt that being struck by lightning was not too likely or not likely at all, which suggests respondents were reading the questions carefully rather than saying they were concerned about everything.

Worries about jobs, housing, crime and lightning vary by group, as does estimated likelihood of occurrence

Jobs

One-third of employed Americans are worried about losing their jobs in the next 12 months, and nearly one-quarter indicate that is likely to happen. These concerns are:

• Somewhat more common among women than men.
• Much more common among younger workers.
• Similar among White Americans and Americans of Color. (This survey does not include enough employed workers of color to confidently provide estimates for additional racial and ethnic groups.)
• Similar regardless of educational attainment.
• Somewhat more common among those with lower incomes.
• Higher among those who are politically independent than either Democrats or Republicans

Housing

One-third of Americans are worried about falling behind on their rent or mortgage payments, and nearly one-quarter indicate that is likely to happen sometime in the next 12 months. These concerns are:

• Higher among women than men.
• Lowest among older adults, age 65 and above, and especially high among those less than 30.
• Especially high among Black Americans, as compared to both White and Hispanic Americans
• Lower among those with at least a college education.
• Lowest among those with family incomes above $100,000 per year.
• Lower among Republicans than either Democrats or independents.
• The proportion of independents who express concerns about meeting their housing payments is nearly identical to Democrats.

Crime

Twenty-nine percent of Americans are worried about being a serious crime victim, and 16% think they are likely to become a crime victim sometime in the next 12 months. These concerns are:

• Somewhat more common among women than men.
• Much more common among adults younger than 30 than those above age 64.
• More common among Black Americans than White or Hispanic Americans.
• Somewhat more common among those with less than a high school education than those with at least some college education.
• More common among the lowest income group, those with annual family incomes of less than $30,000.
• Lower among Republicans than either Democrats or independents.

Methods note: Question order matters

Survey respondents were randomly assigned to one of two conditions: Half were asked about their worries first followed by the likelihood of occurrence. The other half were asked about the likelihood of occurrence followed by their worries.

It turned out that fewer of those who were asked first to consider how likely they were to experience each negative outcome (job loss, falling behind on housing payments, crime victimization, being struck by lightning) were worried about each of the outcomes.

When responding to questions about job loss and housing payments, respondents who were asked first about their worries were less likely to indicate that those issues were “not likely at all.”

Survey questions used in this report

Penn State’s nonpartisan McCourtney Institute for Democracy regularly conducts the nationally representative Mood of the Nation Poll.

The winter 2026 poll included the following questions aimed at better understanding the public’s worries, as well as the likelihood of occurrence, about three key issues plus another added as a sort of control (lightning). Half of the sample, selected at random, were asked the questions about worries first while the other half responded to the likelihood questions first.

Next, we present some possible events. How worried (Very worried, Somewhat worried, Not too worried, or Not worried at all worried) are you about:

1. Losing your job in the next 12 months
2. Falling behind on rent or mortgage payments
3. Being a victim of a serious crime
4. Being struck by lightning

Next, please consider the same possible events. Please tell us whether these are (Very likely, Somewhat likely, Not too likely, or Not likely at all) to happen to you in the next 12 months.

5. Losing your job in the next 12 months
6. Falling behind on rent or mortgage payments
7. Being a victim of a serious crime
8. Being struck by lightning

About the survey

Read the full report
Survey transparency disclosures

Data collection for this Mood of the Nation Poll was conducted online by YouGov (https://today.yougov.com/). The YouGov panel includes over 1.8 million individuals who agree to complete occasional surveys. The methodology of the spring 2025 poll differs from most Mood of the Nation Polls in that the 3,251 individuals who completed the poll were recontacted from earlier Mood of the Nation Polls.

Most Mood of the Nation Polls, are cross-sectional polls of approximately 1,000 U.S. adults, matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the full 2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year sample with selection within strata by weighted sampling with replacements (using the person weights on the public use file).

Acknowledgments

This report was authored by Eric Plutzer of Penn State’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy, who also designed the survey questions in his role as Director of the Mood of the Nation Poll, and Craig Helmstetter.

[1] https://m-graham.com/papers/Graham_ExpressiveMeta.pdf, accessed 3/18/2026.

[2] https://www.bls.gov/news.release/work.nr0.htm, accessed 3/9/2026.

[3] Author’s calculations, based on data from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2024/demo/hhp/cycle09.html (accessed 3/9/2026).

[4] https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/FRBP/Assets/Consumer-Finance/Briefs/cfi-life-survey-housing-payments-stress-sept2025.pdf, accessed 3/9/2026.

[5] https://www.mncompass.org/topics/quality-of-life/housing?cost-burdened-households#1-6930-g, accessed 3/9/2026.

[6] https://ncvs.bjs.ojp.gov/quick-graphics#quickgraphicstop accessed 3/9/2026.

[7] https://www.cdc.gov/lightning/data-research/index.html accessed 3/9/2026.